San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with peak closed sales in early to mid-summer (May- July). San Jose 10-year average is about 450 sales per month with the summer peak month near 600 homes.
San Jose CA Real Estate Market Trends-old
How has the San Jose real estate market performed recently?
With the extremely low, unprecedented inventory levels experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), most areas and properties for sale experienced multiple offers. The competitive buying environment spurred a quick increase in home prices. PRICES in San Jose peaked in May 2018 and then softened quickly in the later part of 2018 due to the return of more normal inventory levels and an increase in interest rates.
Spring 2019 in San Jose started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory, sales and increasing prices. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April since 2008! As a result of the market changes in 2019 and a rebalancing of the unusual activity from 2017/18, prices returned back to levels similar to those seen in the Fall of 2017.
2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with low inventory and strong number of home sale closings in February, March and April. But the effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) showed up in the April pending sales numbers and then May closings. May 2020 pending sales were back to normal seasonal levels and actually continued strong through the rest of 2020.
The strong demand seen in Summer 2020 has continued through 2021. In January through September 2020 there were 3060 single family home sales. In 2021 same timeframe, sales are up to 4321 (41% higher!). While San Jose experiences more sales than usual, the inventory remains low, similar to the market of 2017 where more sales occur than inventory is available at a time.
What are San Jose home prices?
The average PRICE in September 2021 for San Jose was $1,507,610. The median price in September 2021 was $1,425,000 with the average sales price to list price ratio of 108.1% of asking price. Compared to the San Jose market peak of May 2018 ($1,366,990 average price), the market today is up 10.2% to a new record level ($1,507,610).
Which direction is the San Jose real estate market trending?
Sales in San Jose in 2021 have been extremely strong, 1267 more units year to date than 2020. Inventory is near records lows and sales are very strong. Young Millennial homebuyers are aging into homebuying and are extra motivated to make offers due to the historically low interest rates.
The San Jose market hit a record number of pending sales for September 2021 (688), a level we have not seen any month since May 2013! The strong demand will help to consume the new inventory in Q4 and help to keep prices strong.
Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. As of September 2021, the DOI in San Jose is down to 17 days, a strong sellers market. Until there is a significant increase in inventory, I expect prices to continue to appreciate, expected about 5% increase in 2022.
What is the market outlook?
The overall trend of the San Jose market is positive moving forward. San Jose is still one of the most affordable areas of Silicon Valley and is home to a revamping downtown. The market is currently fueled by high demand by young buyers, lack of inventory and great interest rates. The inventory in 2021 has not yet exceeded 350 single family homes for sale at once. Will the inventory increase in Q4 2021? Stay tuned with monthly updates by watching my San Jose Market update videos, signing up to be emailed a monthly update or visit the current month’s market metrics below.
This article is updated once a quarter (next update January 2022 with data through end of December).