Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer. Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.
Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends
How has the Almaden Valley real estate market recently performed?
With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers. This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. In June 2018 inventory increased and sales slowed, changing the intense market momentum.
Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years. This kept prices low in 2019.
2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings. There was a small effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) but then sales picked up again and held strong through the end of 2020.
2021 started off with very low inventory which could not seem to build due to the extremely strong number of sales. The third quarter of 2021 finally showed some signs of inventory increasing, but at the same time sales began to drop seasonally. July through September closed 94 home sales compared to 2020 third quarter of 102. The average third quarter homes sales in Almaden Valley for 2017-2019 is 75, so even though 2021 3rd quarter is slightly lower in sales that 2020, 2021 is still relatively to recent years doing quite well.
What is the trend in Almaden Valley home prices?
The median price in September 2021 for Almaden Valley was $2,050,000. The average price in this same month (September 2021) was $2,094,600. The average sales price to list price ratio averaged at 104.9% of asking price.
Compared to the Almaden Valley pre-pandemic prices, the market today is up 30% (September 2019 median, $1,570,000). Year over year, prices are up 20%.
Please note that prices in Almaden are cyclical with peak prices typically in the late spring. To see the general direction of market prices, please refer to the fuchsia dotted line which depicts the 6-month rolling average of the median price. For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.
Which direction is the Almaden Valley real estate market trending?
Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of September 2021, the DOI in Almaden Valley is has increased to 30 days. The sellers’ market is starting to slow a bit with increase of inventory in and at the same time, a decrease in the number of sales. Until there is a significant increase in inventory though, I expect prices to continue to appreciate.
What is the market outlook?
The overall trend of the Almaden Valley market is positive moving forward. Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect the current market to hold value in 2021. 2022 will continue to appreciate but likely at a bit slower rate than the 20% we saw this year.
This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with continued historically low interest rates and increasing demand from Millennial homebuyers. High-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and are mostly working remotely for their jobs or moving back to the office only a few days a week. The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the area.
Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 18 months are experiencing nice equity gains. Even after the softening experienced in later part of 2018 and into 2019, homeowners who moved in late 2017/early 2018 still have great equity.
Buyers are particular about the options in Almaden Valley. Today’s homebuyers are looking for updated and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively. Pending sales have been extremely strong in 2021, with a huge 42 pending homes in September, higher than what is typically seen during this season. I expect inventory to hold through Quarter 4 of 2021.
This article is updated once a quarter (next one January 2022 with data through end of December). To listen to more recent monthly updates on video, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the latest market metrics are below.
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