Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer, typically 38-40 sold homes in the peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.

How has the Almaden Valley real estate market recently performed?

With the extremely low housing inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers.  This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. Note the reverse in the typical trend from February 2017 through June 2018,  with more sales than inventory available. This unusual occurrence showed how unique and active the market was during this time.

Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years.  This kept prices low in 2019.

2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings in February, March and April.  But the effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) showed up in the April pending sales numbers and the May closings.  May 2020 pending sales are back to normal Almaden Valley seasonal levels so I expect the market to return to a healthy flow through the summer.

Almaden Valley real estate market trends graph May 2020

What is the CURRENT average price?

The average PRICE in May 2020 for Almaden Valley was $1,594,620. The median price in this same month (May 2020) was $1,600,000 with an average sales price to list price ratio of 100.9% of asking price. Compared to the Almaden Valley market peak of June 2018 ($1,911,940), the market today is down.  Today’s prices correlate to prices from Summer/Early Fall of 2017. For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.

Which direction is the Almaden Valley real estate market trending? 

Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market.  Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market.  As of May 2020, the DOI in Almaden Valley is up to 67 days.  This is a soft seller’s market which will likely generate quick sales but not many multiple offer situations. I expect prices to hold steady through 2020.

What is the market outlook?

The overall trend of the Almaden Valley market is positive moving forward.  Almaden Valley is still a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect the current market to hold value in 2020. This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with continued historically low interest rates. Even though unemployment levels are up due to COVID-19 shutdowns, home buyers who can afford Almaden Valley remain employed and are mostly working remotely for their high-tech jobs.  The numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the area.

Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 4 years are experiencing nice equity gains even after the softening experienced in later part of 2018 and into 2019.  Buyers are happy to see a more balanced market and continue to invest in the area.  Pending sales were strong through the holidays and January, so I expect spring closed sales to be healthy as well.

This article is updated once a quarter (next one August 2020).  To listen to more recent monthly updates, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the San Jose Real Estate blog. The current market metrics are below.

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