Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer.  Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August. This page includes an analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate market trends data for the second quarter (April-June 2022).

How has the Almaden Valley real estate market recently performed?

With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers.  This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. In June 2018 inventory increased and sales slowed, changing the intense market momentum.

Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years.  This kept prices low in 2019.

2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings. There was a small effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) but then sales picked up again and held strong through the end of 2020.

2021 started off with very low inventory which could not seem to build due to the extremely strong number of sales. The 3rd quarter of 2021 finally showed some signs of inventory increasing, but by the end of the 4th quarter, we were greeted with record low inventory instead! Sales continued to be strong.

2022 started off with low inventory again which could not keep up with the strong number of sales as noted by the yellow inventory line under the green sales bars. Prices rose sharply due to the supply and demand imbalance while interest rates also rose significantly. The large increase in interest rates greatly affected buyers affordability so demand slowed. Q2 ended with more normal market dynamics of about 1.5 months of inventory rather than weeks and sales slightly lower than normal for June.

Almaden Valley real estate market trends graph June 2022

What are current Almaden Valley home prices?

The median price in June 2022 for Almaden Valley was $2,320,500. The average price in this same month (June 2022) was $2,422,170. The average sales price to list price ratio averaged at 104.7% of asking price.

Compared to the Almaden Valley pre-pandemic prices, the market today is up 28.9% (March 2020 median, $1,800,000).

Please note that prices in Almaden are cyclical with peak prices typically in the late spring. To see the general direction of market prices, please refer to the fuchsia dotted line which depicts the 6-month rolling average of the median price. For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.

Which direction is the Almaden Valley real estate market trending?

Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market.  Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market.  As of June 2022, the DOI in Almaden Valley has gone up to 39 days.  It is still a sellers’ market, but the recent interest rate increases have shrunk the buyer pool that can afford Almaden Valley.

What is the market outlook?

The overall trend of the Almaden Valley market is positive moving forward.  Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect the current market prices to soften seasonally from the peak prices this spring, but to end the year with some modest gains over 2022.

This prediction is based on the supply and demand metrics below in conjunction with the increasing interest rates. High-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and are still working remotely at least a few days a week.  The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the area.

Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 12 months are experiencing nice equity gains.

Buyers are particular about the options in Almaden Valley. Today’s homebuyers are looking for updated and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively.

The analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate market trends data on this page is updated once a quarter (next one October 2022 with data through end of September).  To listen to more recent monthly updates on video, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the latest market metrics are below.


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