Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer. Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.

How has the Almaden Valley real estate market recently performed?

With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers. This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. Note the reverse in the typical trend with the yellow inventory line lower than the green sales line from February 2017 through June 2018. During this period, more sales were happening than inventory available at one time due to the quick days on market. This unusual occurrence showed how unique and active the market was during this time.

Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years. This kept prices low in 2019.

2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings in February, March and April. But the effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) showed up in the April pending sales numbers and the May closings. May 2020 pending sales were back to normal Almaden Valley seasonal levels and sales held strong through the end of 2020. 2020 closed sales in Almaden Valley were 23% higher than 2019 (with 61 more closed sales in 2020). Prices once again increased in 2020 due to the low inventory and high number of sales. The year over year increase in Median price was 14.4% (comparing December 2020 to December 2019).

almaden valley real estate trends, Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

What are Almaden Valley prices?

The median price in December 2020 for Almaden Valley was $1,660,000. The average price in this same month (December 2020) was $1,738,570 with an average sales price to list price ratio of 104.4% of asking price.

Compared to the Almaden Valley peak prices of mid 2018, (June 2018 average of $1,911,940), the market today is down slightly. Please note that prices in Almaden are cyclical with peak prices typically in the late spring. In 2020 the average price hit a new peak in November at over $2M and the median price peaked in March 2020 ($1,800,000), slightly higher than the 2018 peak ($1,750,000). December 2020 closed median prices are up 14.4% year over year.

For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.

Which direction is the Almaden Valley real estate market trending?

Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of December 2020, the DOI in Almaden Valley is down to 7 days, but this sellers’ market is likely going to slow a bit with increase inventory in early 2021. How much will Prop 19 affect the inventory? Only time will tell. Until there is a significant increase in inventory though, I expect prices to continue to appreciate.

What is the market outlook?

The overall trend of the Almaden Valley market is positive moving forward. Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect the current market to hold value in 2021 and possibly even appreciate some more.

This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with continued historically low interest rates. Even though unemployment levels are still up due to COVID-19 shutdowns, high-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and are mostly working remotely for their jobs. The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the area.

Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 4 years are experiencing nice equity gains even after the softening experienced in later part of 2018 and into 2019. Buyers are particular about the options in Almaden Valley. Today’s homebuyers are looking for updated and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively. Pending sales were strong through the later part of 2020, but I expect inventory to increase in Spring 2021. The increased inventory may dampen overbidding.

This article is updated once a quarter (next one April 2021 with data through end of March). To listen to more recent monthly updates on video, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the latest market metrics are below.


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