Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

The Almaden Valley real estate trends follow a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with peak sales in early summer, primarily due to its focus on schools. This cycle is driven by the first day of school for the new year starting mid-August.

What is the recent Almaden Valley real estate trends?

With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers which spurred a quick increase in home prices. PRICES in Almaden Valley peaked in January 2018 and then an even higher average price peak in June 2018 with $1,911,940 topping the average sales price in June 2018.

OVERBIDDING was common place in 2017 and 2018 with the peak sales price to list price ratio of 111.7% in February 2018. May 2018 marked the peak numbers of home SALES in Almaden Valley since January 2015 with 44 sales closed.

In late summer of 2018, these record high prices plus increasing interest rates had buyers waiting on the sidelines and the number of sales decreasing earlier than typical in the year’s sales cycle. This late summer/early fall season in 2018 felt like an early winter and prices softened the rest of 2018 as a result of the decreased sale activity.

In March 2019 the average sales price in Almaden Valley was $1,627,090. March 2019 showed a recovery of strong buyer bids with an average sales price to list price ratio of 100.3%. In March 2019, the number of Almaden Valley homes sold was 20, which is typical of March in this area (March 2015 – 35, March 2016 – 21, March 2017 – 28, March 2018 – 23)

Almaden Valley real estate trends

What is the CURRENT average price?

The average PRICE in March 2019 for Almaden Valley was $1,627,090 with the average sale price to list price ratio at 100.3% of asking price. Compared to the Almaden Valley market peak of June 2018 ($1,911,940), the market today is down.

Which direction is the Almaden Valley real estate market trending?

Sales in Almaden Valley were lower than normal from January 2019 through March 2019 but pending sales having quickly jumped, with 30 sales so far since April 1, 2019. After the inventory shortage of late 2017/early 2018, the Almaden Valley market has returned to a more typical sales environment.

As of March 2019, average prices are still 14% below the peak of June 2018. BUT in February 2019, the direction of the market shifted, and prices once again began trending upward. Comparing March 2017 to March 2019 (just a 2 years span), the average price in Almaden Valley has still INCREASED 13%! This data and perspective leads me to believe that early 2018 prices in Almaden were inflated due to lack of supply and high demand. Since the inventory is back to more normal levels, the market has settled and starting to return to modest appreciation.

What is the market outlook?

To understand where the market is trending there are several important factors to watch including: pending and closed sales (shown below), inventory change, interest rates and unemployment rate in the local area.  Contact Theresa for more information on these parameters.

The overall direction of the Almaden Valley real estate trends is up and I expect this healthy balanced market to conservatively appreciate in 2019. Inventory for Almaden Valley in 2019 has increased as is typical for spring with 31 homes available for sale in March 2019 and inventory in the upper 30s through April 2019. The prices changed direction and returned to appreciating numbers in February 2019. In February 2019, Almaden Valley also saw a return to sales prices on average being slightly ABOVE asking price.

Sales in 2019 are picking back up and prices are slowly trending upward. Sellers who have lived in the area more than 2 years are experiencing large equity gains even after the softening experienced in later part of 2018. It is financially attractive to sell even after just 2 years if the time is right for that seller. Buyers are happy to see a more balanced market.

Next Steps

  1. Are you considering buying a home in Almaden Valley?  Check out Almaden Valley Homes for Sale or get more information about how Theresa can help you in Almaden.
  2. Do you want more information about Almaden Valley?
  3. What does it take to sell your Almaden Valley home? Read more about how we can help be your Almaden Valley realtor or our Custom Marketing Plan.
  4. Would you like to hear a monthly update on the market statistics? Sign up to get a Free Almaden Market Monthly Video Report or see the other reports available on the Free Reports.  Also visit my Blog for Almaden specific updates.
  5. Study the raw data yourself below. With Theresa’s engineering background and experience in San Jose since 2004, she gladly discusses market statistics with her clients.  See below Almaden Valley real estate specific statistics and contact Theresa for a personal discussion on these stats.


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